Skip to main content

Will Beijing invade Taiwan?

Chinese people love symbolic dates. 2021 will be the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, which Beijing would like to celebrate with Taiwan returned under its yoke. But peaceful reunification seems unlikely. In Taiwan, barely 10% of Taiwanese want reunification.

Beijing, in its view, has done everything: China has facilitated trade and investment between the two countries, encouraged cultural exchanges and warmed relations between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang. Now, Beijing is getting impatient. Chinese TV talk about invasion, broadcast images of large-scale military maneuvers to intimidate Taiwan. Last January, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning went straight into the Taiwan Strait. Beijing was directly threatening President Tsai of Taiwan at the very moment he was contacting the newly elected President Donald Trump. Yet Taiwan still refuses to bend.

A Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, speaks of "One China, Two Systems", as for Hong Kong. But Chinese officials intend, as in Hong Kong, to purge the island of democracy.
The use of force to incorporate Taiwan is envisaged. The Chinese People's Army would outshine the forces of Taiwan. But an enormous invasion by sea would remain perilous. And then it would remain to know how the United States, led by Donald Trump, would react and how to defeat them in the event of direct confrontation.
Finally, there would be repercussions in Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia or even Vietnam. These regional rivals could, along with the United States, create a military coalition against China.
Almost all of these countries are facing a territorial dispute with China. They are therefore very attentive to China's attitude towards Taiwan. China is committed to resolving territorial disputes peacefully. A China that invades Taiwan, would therefore betray its commitments and scare these countries, which could join a military coalition against China, as a preventive measure.
If war broke out, besides the security of its borders, China would certainly see its economic growth affected, and thus its social peace compromised.
The specter of civil war is traumatic for China, which would quickly return to the pre-1949 chaos before the Communist Party was able to end the civil war and control the entire territory. China would lose everything. Taiwan probably does not deserve that China implodes. Reunification shall wait until 2049.


Popular posts from this blog

South Africa : Will ANC survive to 2019 ?

After twenty-three years of power, in spite of beautiful democrat intentions, the record of the ANC governments in South Africa is mixed: the population is poorer than in the days of apartheid, the state is failing, Corrupted are politicians. Crime has exploded and racial hatred poisons everyday life. South Africa has become an ordinary African country.

The history of South Africa is that of rivalry between three groups: Africans, British origin citizens and Franco-Dutch: the Boers. African population was first enslaved by the army of Her Majesty. Despite the courageous resistance, and a defeat inflicted to the British army by Zulu warriors at the Battle of Isandhlwana (January 22, 1879), African populations were subjected to white power until the end of the twentieth century. Then, the British opposed settlers of Franco-Dutch origin: the Boers.
In 1835, the Boers left the Cape Colony to migrate to the interior of South Africa and escape British domination. It was the "Grand Trek&q…

China is ready to govern the world

"Older countries have glasses to see the future," might have said a Chinese proverb. President Xi Jinping drew inspiration from the legendary Silk Road, which ensured China's prosperity for a millennium, to launch the most ambitious economic development plan in the history of the 21st century: "One Belt One Road "(OBOR). On one side, a terrestrial "belt" which connects the interior of China with Europe, by Central Asia and Turkey; On the other side, a maritime "road" linking the Chinese coastline to the East of Africa, passing through the Arabic Gulf countries. It is the "New Silk Road" which formalizes the entry of China into the club of the great superpowers.

Indeed, OBOR materializes the political and commercial alliances that China, the rising power of the 21st century, has patiently woven for decades. For several years, Chinese companies have been building pipelines and fiber optic networks across Eurasia and Africa. Far from …

France and Australia are ready for a war in the Pacific.

France is a small country ... of 11 million square kilometers, thanks to the 200 thousand Exclusive Economic Zone that surround the smallest of its islets. French Polynesia alone comprises over 100 islands and atolls lost in the Pacific, an area twenty times larger than the United Kingdom. Yet, at the end of the Cold War, Paris was thinking of getting rid of these lost territories in the Pacific. Didn't the Noumea Treaty offer a referendum on the independence of New Caledonia for 2018 ? Today, the deal has changed. Paris has good reasons to keep its territories in the Pacific.

China is investing heavily in the area, offering scholarships in Chinese universities, lending money to finance infrastructure projects throughout the region. The beneficiary countries must accept, in return, Chinese immigrants. In Tonga Islands, over the last decade, the Chinese have taken over more than 80% of the stores.
China has, of course, also invested in French Polynesia, technical stop, for her, to …