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Will Brexit lead to the end of UK?

The European alliance offers an opportunity for small countries to emancipate themselves from the tutelage of cumbersome neighbors. After the Brexit, Northern Ireland (Ulster) and Scotland see the claim of their European identity as a means of freeing themselves from London rule.

The Brexit could decide the Northern Irish to leave the United Kingdom and unite with the South as a European nation. If, on the contrary, Northern Ireland chose to remain within the United Kingdom, this could lead to border problems between Ulster and Ireland, and perhaps even challenge civil peace obtained, in 1998, by the Good Friday Agreement.

There is one detail that everyone forgets: the 1998 peace agreement provides the opportunity for the 1.8 million Northern Irish to hold British and Irish dual citizenship. The Irish passport is a European passport. 56% of Northern Irish chose Irish citizenship. Since then, there has been an upward trend: 3,973 applications for Irish citizenship in January 2016, 7,045 applications in January 2017. The Northern Irish fear that the Brexit will lead to the re-establishment of a border like the one that existed before the " Good Friday Agreement. Since 1998, 60,000 people cross the border between Northern and Southern Ireland on a daily basis. Capital exchanges, labor mobility have enabled a prosperous economy to flourish, and trade is booming between north and south. Ulster is enjoying an aid of $ 7.9 billion of European funds, allocated until 2020, if Brussels agrees to pursue payment.

European partners are fully aware of the issue. On April 29, 2017, they met in Brussels and adopted the "Kenny Text" which, in the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement, is clearly supporting a smooth reunification of Ireland.  Scots, as well, feel European. They are already planning a new referendum for the independence of Scotland. 

It's a difficult time for London


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